ClickFraud tracking company Click Forensics Inc. announced today that “industry average fraud rate rose to 16.6% for fourth quarter 2007, up from the 14.2% click fraud rate for the same quarter in 2006 and 16.2 percent for third quarter 2007.”

I wish could trust these numbers. But I really don’t. They could be high or low, and as usual the averages don’t matter.

There is an interesting back and forth on the ClickFraudNetwork blog between these guys and Shuman Ghosemajumder from Google.

• I personally have no doubt there is an issue.
• Or that it’s very hard to track/detect.
• Or that the search engines aren’t being as transparent and forthcoming as they should/could be.
• Or that Click Forensics is both sincere and at the same time trying to promote a business.
• Or that if the engines believed it was as small a problem as they say, they could be much more convincing.

I applaud Click Forensics and their CEO Tom Cuthbert for the initiative and effort of setting up the ClickFraud Network. But until it’s cut loose to be a truly independent entity run by a consortium of vendors and advertisers, it’s credibility is legitimately in question, even before you get to the obvious technical problems/limitations.

At some point the industry needs to face this. Thus far it’s buried in the growth and all the other changes and issues. Perhaps it will stay that way for another few years. With so money at stake that would be unfortunate.